tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2217256038442888769.post7809848453486679720..comments2023-10-11T16:22:14.862+03:00Comments on ΕΝΑΡΘΡΗ ΚΡΑΥΓΗ: Risk-sharing, hubris, and a possible Grexit from the EurozoneΧαρίδημος Τσούκαςhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18268262143932802558noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2217256038442888769.post-85137111334735923692015-02-08T19:36:09.194+02:002015-02-08T19:36:09.194+02:00Χάρη, ευχαριστούμε πολύ για την ανάλυση! Σε παρακ...Χάρη, ευχαριστούμε πολύ για την ανάλυση! Σε παρακαλώ θερμά, αν είναι δυνατό, ένα σχόλιο για το κατά πόσο θεωρείς εφικτό το antifragility του Taleb. <br />ΝΝAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2217256038442888769.post-23631364989534182572015-02-06T13:25:46.313+02:002015-02-06T13:25:46.313+02:00Dear Hari,
I am afraid that I cannot disagree wi...Dear Hari, <br /><br />I am afraid that I cannot disagree with your analysis at all. The two sides (Greece and its creditors, I wouldn’t call them “partners”) have taken hardline stances, which make the negotiation outcome unpredictable, to say the least. As Krugman says today in his NYT article “This isn’t diplomacy as usual; this is a game of chicken, of two trucks loaded with dynamite barreling toward each other on a narrow mountain road, with neither willing to turn aside.”<br /><br />Most people think that Germany and the rest of the Eurozone countries have nothing to lose, if Greece exits the Eurozone. Only Greece will lose a lot (it’s certainly true that the Greek economy will collapse). Yet, they are wrong. A “Grexit” will not only signal to investor and market communities that the Eurozone project is reversible (if a country cannot grow within the Eurozone, it may choose to leave) – causing immense pressure on Southern European bonds (esp. Italy) -, but, most importantly, will signal that, for the Eurozone project to succeed, at critical moments, Europe has to accept a democratic deficit. The voice of the people just makes little difference in the decision making process of the elite Eurogroup. It is striking that German politicians are persistently refusing to “read” the outcome of Greek elections. What does it mean? Apparently, Schauble only “reads” it as the willingness to not stick to “commitments”, and hence, demonstrating disrespect to European solidarity… With this kind of framing strategy, hope for a political solution vanishes. I am afraid that only Merkel’s innate conservatism, as you say, might bring this crisis to a halt… not her leadership. <br /><br />Manos <br />Μανώλης Γκερεδάκηςhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07612744968412036644noreply@blogger.com